The lira is down about 17% against the dollar over the past year and roughly 444% over five.
The inflation it cannot outrun
Start with prices. Turkish consumer inflation was still running at about 32.1% year on year in June 2026, easing only slightly from 32.6% in May, according to Turkey’s statistics office. When domestic prices rise at that pace and trading partners sit near 2%, a currency has to lose value over time simply to keep exports competitive. That is the structural gravity under the lira, and it has not gone away.
The central bank is fighting it with a high policy rate. The CBRT held its benchmark at 37% for a third straight meeting in June 2026, after an earlier cut in March, according to the CBRT. At 37% against roughly 32% inflation, the real rate is only a few points positive. That is enough to keep the orthodox program credible, but not enough to pull the lira back up, so the currency slides in a managed, gradual way rather than snapping.
A managed slide, not a free fall
Since Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek's return to orthodox policy in mid-2023, the strategy has been to let the lira depreciate at roughly the pace of inflation rather than defend a fixed level, smoothing the path with intervention. That is why the chart looks like a steady staircase down instead of a cliff: the weakness is deliberate and cumulative.
The two shocks of 2026
A Middle East conflict involving Iran pushed energy and food prices up and slowed the disinflation the central bank had been counting on.
Political uncertainty raises the risk premium on Turkish assets, and the currency is where that shows up first.
What it looks like in the data
The result is a currency at its weakest level ever recorded against the dollar. In our history, USD/TRY has pushed past its previous daily peak and now trades around 46.99. Because our archive runs back to 1999, that record is measured against 27 years of daily closes, not a short recent window. Every rate carries its source and market_session, so during an intervention week you can tell a live market rate from a daily reference fix rather than guessing.
None of this is a forecast. We are not predicting where USD/TRY goes next, and the drivers above are the reported causes of where it already is, not a call on the future. What we publish is the rate, its record, and the source behind each number.