USD to IDR Forecast 2026: Institutional Consensus
The unweighted median of five comparable public forecasts is Rp17,000 per US dollar for year-end 2026. Contributor points range from Rp16,800 to Rp17,800.
Sources reviewed: July 19, 2026
2026 consensus at a glance
How this compares with the reference rate at review
Bank Indonesia's JISDOR reference was Rp17,944 per US dollar on July 17, 2026. The Rp17,000 median forecast is 5.3% below that reference, which implies a stronger rupiah by year-end if the median is reached. Bank Indonesia JISDOR
Forecasts included in the calculation
Each row links to the original public report. Forecast dates remain visible because publication age materially affects how the numbers should be read.
| Institution | Published | Target | USD/IDR forecast | Treatment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UOB Global Economics & Markets Research | June 19, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | Rp17,800 | Quarter-end point forecast from the UOB House View 3Q 2026 forecast table. |
| OCBC Group Research | May 6, 2026 | December 2026 | Rp17,000 | Forecast updated 4 May 2026 and published in OCBC FX Focus on 6 May. |
| NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia | April 14, 2026 | Year-end 2026 | Rp17,250–17,350 | Published as a target range. Its midpoint, 17,300, enters the median calculation. |
| BCA Economic & Industry Research | March 10, 2026 | Year-end 2026 | Rp16,842 | BCA describes this as its estimate of the rupiah's fundamental year-end value. |
| ING Think | November 10, 2025 | 4Q 2026 | Rp16,800 | The oldest included forecast. It remains visible so readers can judge its age. |
Methodology
- A forecast qualifies when the institution publishes a numeric USD/IDR point or range for year-end or the fourth quarter of 2026 and the original report is publicly accessible.
- The consensus is an unweighted median. Every institution contributes once, regardless of size or forecast date.
- When an institution publishes a range, its midpoint enters the median calculation while the original range remains visible in the table.
- Annual-average assumptions, short-term technical levels, government budget assumptions, and figures reported only through an unverifiable secondary quotation are excluded.
- The page is updated when a qualifying institution revises its forecast. Older forecasts are retained only while they remain the institution's latest qualifying public projection.
What the spread says
The 1,000-rupiah gap between the lowest and highest contributor points is substantial. It reflects different assumptions about US rates, Bank Indonesia policy, energy prices, fiscal conditions, and capital flows.
The source dates span several months. The median is a transparent summary of published views, not a real-time probability estimate.