USD to PLN Forecast 2026: Institutional Consensus
The unweighted median of five comparable public forecasts is zł3.593 per US dollar for year-end 2026. Contributor points range from zł3.520 to zł3.718.
Sources reviewed: July 20, 2026
2026 consensus at a glance
How this compares with the reference rate at review
Narodowy Bank Polski's average USD/PLN rate was zł3.7951 zloty per US dollar on July 17, 2026. The zł3.593 median forecast is 5.3% below that reference, which implies a stronger zloty by year-end if the median is reached. Narodowy Bank Polski USD/PLN average rate
Forecasts included in the calculation
Each row links to the original public report. Forecast dates remain visible because publication age materially affects how the numbers should be read.
| Institution | Published | Target | USD/PLN forecast | Treatment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mBank Research | February 17, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | zł3.520 | Posted and updated 17 February; mBank revised its 4Q point to 3.52 from 3.57. |
| PKO Bank Polski | June 18, 2026 | Year-end 2026 | zł3.570 | PKO Bank Polski's macroeconomic outlook page, dated 18 June 2026, gives a 2026 end-period USD/PLN forecast of 3.57. |
| Bank Pekao Economic Research | July 8, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | zł3.650 | The MacroCompass July/August report was posted 8 July; its quarterly forecast table gives 3.65 for 4Q 2026. |
| MUFG Research | July 1, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | zł3.593 | End-quarter point forecast from MUFG's July monthly foreign-exchange outlook. |
| Wells Fargo Economics | January 14, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | zł3.718 | The oldest included forecast, published 14 January; the quarterly forecast table (Eastern Europe/Middle East/Africa section) gives 3.7180 for 4Q 2026. |
Methodology
- A forecast qualifies when the institution publishes a numeric USD/PLN point or range for year-end or the fourth quarter of 2026 and the original report is publicly accessible.
- The consensus is an unweighted median. Every institution contributes once, regardless of size or forecast date.
- When an institution publishes a range, its midpoint enters the median calculation while the original range remains visible in the table.
- Annual-average assumptions, short-term technical levels, government budget assumptions, and figures reported only through an unverifiable secondary quotation are excluded.
- The page is updated when a qualifying institution revises its forecast. Older forecasts are retained only while they remain the institution's latest qualifying public projection.
What the spread says
The 0.198-zloty gap reflects different assumptions about Federal Reserve and NBP policy, Polish growth, EU-fund inflows, inflation, and geopolitical risk.
Wells Fargo's January forecast is materially older than the other four. The median is a dated summary of published views, not a real-time probability estimate.