USD to THB Forecast 2026: Institutional Consensus
The unweighted median of five comparable public forecasts is ฿32.0 per US dollar for year-end 2026. Contributor points range from ฿31.3 to ฿32.8.
Sources reviewed: July 19, 2026
2026 consensus at a glance
How this compares with the reference rate at review
The Bank of Thailand's USD reference rate was ฿33.6070 per US dollar on July 17, 2026. The ฿32.0 median forecast is 4.8% below that reference, which implies a stronger baht by year-end if the median is reached. Bank of Thailand USD reference rate
Forecasts included in the calculation
Each row links to the original public report. Forecast dates remain visible because publication age materially affects how the numbers should be read.
| Institution | Published | Target | USD/THB forecast | Treatment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER | June 16, 2026 | Year-end 2026 | ฿32.8 | KResearch expects the baht to end 2026 around 32.80 per US dollar. |
| SCB Economic Intelligence Center | April 17, 2026 | Year-end 2026 | ฿32.0 | The full Q1 report was posted 17 April with forecasts as of 26 March; its table gives a year-end THB/USD value of 32. |
| DBS Group Research | July 3, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | ฿32.0 | End-period forecast from the exchange-rate table in The Week Ahead. |
| OCBC Group Research | June 8, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | ฿32.1 | Quarter-end point forecast from OCBC FX Weekly. |
| UOB Global Economics & Markets Research | March 6, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | ฿31.3 | Quarter-end forecast from UOB Quarterly Global Outlook 2Q 2026. |
Methodology
- A forecast qualifies when the institution publishes a numeric USD/THB point or range for year-end or the fourth quarter of 2026 and the original report is publicly accessible.
- The consensus is an unweighted median. Every institution contributes once, regardless of size or forecast date.
- When an institution publishes a range, its midpoint enters the median calculation while the original range remains visible in the table.
- Annual-average assumptions, short-term technical levels, government budget assumptions, and figures reported only through an unverifiable secondary quotation are excluded.
- The page is updated when a qualifying institution revises its forecast. Older forecasts are retained only while they remain the institution's latest qualifying public projection.
What the spread says
The 1.5-baht gap between the lowest and highest contributor points reflects different assumptions about US rates, Bank of Thailand policy, energy costs, tourism, gold-linked flows, and domestic growth.
The median is below the reviewed reference rate, but the source set is not a probability distribution. It is a dated summary of published institutional views.