exchangerate.devUSD/JPY is 156.80 yen per dollar at the close of October 23, 2026. Applying past 12-month moves to that rate gives a middle outcome of 157.65, with one in ten runs below 140.25 and one in ten above 180.77.
What the table shows
The table applies past USD/JPY moves since 1999 to the latest closing rate, giving a historical base rate for how wide a normal year has been. A higher number means a stronger dollar and a weaker yen.
It is not a forecast or advice, and a normal year here is a historical reference rather than a limit. Each column uses past runs matching its horizon, including 48 trading days for the period to year end.
What past moves would mean from the latest close
| To year end | Six months ahead | Twelve months ahead | |
|---|---|---|---|
| One in ten runs ended below this | 149.14 | 144.34 | 140.25 |
| One in four runs ended below this | 153.24 | 151.05 | 148.14 |
| Middle of all runs | 157.18 | 157.38 | 157.65 |
| One in four runs ended above this | 161.14 | 164.29 | 169.47 |
| One in ten runs ended above this | 165.47 | 171.95 | 180.77 |
| Share of runs that ended higher | 52.9% | 52% | 52.8% |
How past moves become ranges
For each horizon, we take every overlapping run with the same number of trading days since 1999 and calculate its percentage change. The 12-month calculation contains 6,869 runs.
We take the tenth, twenty-fifth, fiftieth, seventy-fifth and ninetieth percentiles of those changes and apply them to 156.80. The middle is the median, while the outer reference points each leave one in ten runs beyond them.
The past does not repeat exactly, and overlapping runs are not independent. By definition, two in ten runs ended outside the band, so it does not contain all rare shocks.
Recent and long-run volatility
Annualised volatility is 7.8% over the last year, compared with 9.9% across the full history. When the recent figure is above the long-run figure, wider moves have been more common recently; when it is below, narrower moves have been more common.
What moves the dollar against the yen
The interest-rate gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan affects the relative appeal of dollar and yen holdings. Trade, the current account and commodity import costs, including energy, also influence demand for the currencies.
Capital flows and changes in risk appetite affect demand for yen funding and assets. These forces can reinforce or offset each other.
How this differs from published forecasts
Banks and research firms publish forecasts for different horizons, including year-end targets, quarterly averages and rates 12 months ahead, and revise them as conditions change. This page does not reproduce those forecasts.
A published forecast is one view of the future. The table is the spread of what has happened, expressed at the latest closing rate.
Rebuild the table with the API
Get daily closes with /v1/range?base=USD&symbols=JPY&start_date=...&end_date=.... Use matching trading-day runs to calculate percentage changes, take their percentiles and apply them to the latest close.
Free includes 30 days of daily history and 5,000 requests a month. One year of daily history starts on Basic; the full history since 1999 used by this page starts on Plus.
curl "https://api.exchangerate.dev/v1/range?base=USD&symbols=JPY&start_date=2026-09-27&end_date=2026-10-24"USD/JPY over the last year
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