USD to JPY Forecast 2026: Institutional Consensus
The unweighted median of five comparable public forecasts is ¥155 per US dollar for year-end 2026. Contributor points range from ¥146 to ¥158.
Sources reviewed: July 19, 2026
2026 consensus at a glance
How this compares with the reference rate at review
The Bank of Japan's 17:00 JST USD/JPY midpoint was ¥162.29 per US dollar on July 17, 2026. The ¥155 median forecast is 4.5% below that reference, which implies a stronger yen by year-end if the median is reached. Bank of Japan 17:00 JST midpoint
Forecasts included in the calculation
Each row links to the original public report. Forecast dates remain visible because publication age materially affects how the numbers should be read.
| Institution | Published | Target | USD/JPY forecast | Treatment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUFG Research | July 1, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | ¥158 | MUFG's July monthly outlook gives an end-quarter USD/JPY point forecast. |
| DBS Group Research | July 3, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | ¥151 | End-period forecast from the exchange-rate table in The Week Ahead. |
| ING Think | July 9, 2026 | Year-end 2026 | ¥158 | ING states that USD/JPY can end 2026 near 158. |
| OCBC Group Research | June 8, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | ¥155 | Quarter-end point forecast from OCBC FX Weekly. |
| Daiwa Asset Management | December 22, 2025 | Year-end 2026 | ¥146 | The oldest included forecast. Daiwa expects USD/JPY around 146 at year-end. |
Methodology
- A forecast qualifies when the institution publishes a numeric USD/JPY point or range for year-end or the fourth quarter of 2026 and the original report is publicly accessible.
- The consensus is an unweighted median. Every institution contributes once, regardless of size or forecast date.
- When an institution publishes a range, its midpoint enters the median calculation while the original range remains visible in the table.
- Annual-average assumptions, short-term technical levels, government budget assumptions, and figures reported only through an unverifiable secondary quotation are excluded.
- The page is updated when a qualifying institution revises its forecast. Older forecasts are retained only while they remain the institution's latest qualifying public projection.
What the spread says
The 12-yen gap between the lowest and highest contributor points reflects sharply different assumptions about Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy, intervention risk, oil prices, and global risk appetite.
Daiwa's December forecast is materially older than the other four. The median summarizes the published set; it is not a real-time probability estimate.