USD to KRW Forecast 2026: Institutional Consensus
The unweighted median of five comparable public forecasts is ₩1,440 per US dollar for year-end 2026. Contributor points range from ₩1,430 to ₩1,500.
Sources reviewed: July 19, 2026
2026 consensus at a glance
How this compares with the reference rate at review
The Bank of Korea's USD/KRW closing rate was ₩1,478.5 won per US dollar on July 17, 2026. The ₩1,440 median forecast is 2.6% below that reference, which implies a stronger won by year-end if the median is reached. Bank of Korea USD/KRW closing rate
Forecasts included in the calculation
Each row links to the original public report. Forecast dates remain visible because publication age materially affects how the numbers should be read.
| Institution | Published | Target | USD/KRW forecast | Treatment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NH Investment & Securities | May 28, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | ₩1,440 | The web report was posted 28 May and the underlying report is dated 26 May; its 4Q 2026 USD/KRW forecast is 1,440. |
| Samsung Asset Management | December 4, 2025 | Year-end 2026 | ₩1,430 | Uploaded 4 December 2025 with market data stated as of 23 November. The explicit year-end point of 1,430 enters the median; the report also retains a separate full-year 2026 range of 1,350–1,500. |
| DBS Group Research | June 30, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | ₩1,485 | Quarter-end point forecast from the FX Quarterly report published 30 June. |
| UOB Global Economics & Markets Research | March 6, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | ₩1,430 | The Quarterly Global Outlook is based on information available 6 March and gives a 4Q 2026 point of 1,430. |
| MUFG Research | July 1, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | ₩1,500 | End-quarter point forecast from MUFG's July monthly foreign-exchange outlook. |
Methodology
- A forecast qualifies when the institution publishes a numeric USD/KRW point or range for year-end or the fourth quarter of 2026 and the original report is publicly accessible.
- The consensus is an unweighted median. Every institution contributes once, regardless of size or forecast date.
- When an institution publishes a range, its midpoint enters the median calculation while the original range remains visible in the table. Samsung's explicit year-end point is used instead of its separate full-year trading range.
- Annual-average assumptions, short-term technical levels, government budget assumptions, and figures reported only through an unverifiable secondary quotation are excluded.
- The page is updated when a qualifying institution revises its forecast. Older forecasts are retained only while they remain the institution's latest qualifying public projection.
What the spread says
The 70-won gap reflects different assumptions about Federal Reserve and Bank of Korea policy, semiconductor exports, energy prices, domestic growth, and global risk appetite.
Samsung's December 2025 outlook is much older than the other four. The median is a dated summary of published views, not a real-time probability estimate.