USD to TRY Forecast 2026: Institutional Consensus
The unweighted median of five comparable public forecasts is ₺51.8 per US dollar for year-end 2026. Contributor points range from ₺51.0 to ₺52.5.
Sources reviewed: July 20, 2026
2026 consensus at a glance
How this compares with the reference rate at review
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye's indicative USD/TRY buying and selling midpoint was ₺47.0282 lira per US dollar on July 17, 2026. The ₺51.8 median forecast is 10.1% above that reference, which implies a weaker lira by year-end if the median is reached. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye indicative USD/TRY midpoint
Forecasts included in the calculation
Each row links to the original public report. Forecast dates remain visible because publication age materially affects how the numbers should be read.
| Institution | Published | Target | USD/TRY forecast | Treatment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garanti BBVA / BBVA Research Türkiye | June 16, 2026 | Year-end 2026 | ₺52.0 | Published and updated 16 June; the Türkiye team kept its end-2026 USD/TRY forecast at 52. |
| Gedik Yatırım | January 5, 2026 | Year-end 2026 | ₺52.5 | The oldest included forecast, published 5 January; Gedik gives an end-2026 USD/TRY point of 52.50. |
| MUFG Research | July 1, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | ₺51.5 | End-quarter point forecast from MUFG's July monthly foreign-exchange outlook. |
| Wells Fargo Economics | January 14, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | ₺51.0 | Published 14 January; the quarterly forecast table (Eastern Europe/Middle East/Africa section) gives 51.00 for 4Q 2026. |
| ING Think | June 15, 2026 | December-equivalent 2026 | ₺51.8 | Published 15 June. ING labels 51.80 as its six-month target; from the June report date, that horizon is treated as December-equivalent rather than as a short-term technical level. |
Methodology
- A forecast qualifies when the institution publishes a numeric USD/TRY point or range for year-end or the fourth quarter of 2026 and the original report is publicly accessible. ING's six-month target from 15 June is December-equivalent and is disclosed as such.
- The consensus is an unweighted median. Every institution contributes once, regardless of size or forecast date.
- When an institution publishes a range, its midpoint enters the median calculation while the original range remains visible in the table.
- Annual-average assumptions, short-term technical levels, government budget assumptions, and figures reported only through an unverifiable secondary quotation are excluded.
- The page is updated when a qualifying institution revises its forecast. Older forecasts are retained only while they remain the institution's latest qualifying public projection.
What the spread says
The 1.5-lira gap reflects different assumptions about inflation, energy prices, central-bank policy, and external financing, and the source set spans very different publication dates.
Gedik and Wells Fargo were published in January. The median is a dated summary of public institutional views, not a real-time probability estimate.