exchangerate.devUSD/TRY is 50.15 lira per dollar at the close of November 6, 2026. Applying past 12-month moves to that rate gives a middle outcome of 58.70, with one in ten runs below 46.53 and one in ten above 79.51.
What the table shows
The table applies past USD/TRY moves since 1999 to the latest closing rate, giving a historical base rate for how wide a normal year has been. A higher number means a stronger dollar and a weaker lira.
It is not a forecast or advice. A normal year here is a historical reference, and the next year can fall outside it. Each column uses past runs matching its horizon, including 38 trading days for the period to year end.
What past moves would mean from the latest close
| To year end | Six months ahead | Twelve months ahead | |
|---|---|---|---|
| One in ten runs ended below this | 47.92 | 46.91 | 46.53 |
| One in four runs ended below this | 49.48 | 49.87 | 51.58 |
| Middle of all runs | 51.15 | 53.88 | 58.70 |
| One in four runs ended above this | 52.85 | 57.90 | 64.75 |
| One in ten runs ended above this | 55.53 | 63.86 | 79.51 |
| Share of runs that ended higher | 66.3% | 72.7% | 80.9% |
How past moves become ranges
For each horizon, we take every overlapping run with the same number of trading days since 1999 and calculate its percentage change. The 12-month calculation contains 6,879 runs.
We take the tenth, twenty-fifth, fiftieth, seventy-fifth and ninetieth percentiles of those changes and apply them to 50.15. The middle is the median, while the outer reference points each leave one in ten runs beyond them.
The past does not repeat exactly, and overlapping runs are not independent. By definition, two in ten runs ended outside the band, so it does not contain all rare shocks.
Recent and long-run volatility
Annualised volatility is 1.5% over the last year, compared with 19.2% across the full history. When the recent figure is above the long-run figure, wider moves have been more common recently; when it is below, narrower moves have been more common.
The lira has lost value against the dollar over this history: 80.9% of the 12-month runs ended higher. The middle outcome sits well above the latest close for that reason, and the table does not say the pattern will repeat.
What moves the dollar against the lira
Turkish inflation has run well above US inflation for most of this history, and the gap between price rises and interest rates affects the appeal of lira holdings. Turkey imports most of its energy, so oil and gas prices weigh on the current account.
The foreign currency reserves of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye set how much support the lira can get, and foreign investors' appetite for Turkish assets moves with global risk sentiment and domestic policy.
How this differs from published forecasts
Banks and research firms publish forecasts for different horizons, including year-end targets, quarterly averages and rates 12 months ahead, and revise them as conditions change. This page does not reproduce those forecasts.
A published forecast is one view of the future. The table is the spread of what has happened, expressed at the latest closing rate.
Rebuild the table with the API
Get daily closes with /v1/range?base=USD&symbols=TRY&start_date=...&end_date=.... Use matching trading-day runs to calculate percentage changes, take their percentiles and apply them to the latest close.
Free includes 30 days of daily history and 5,000 requests a month. One year of daily history starts on Basic; the full history since 1999 used by this page starts on Plus.
curl "https://api.exchangerate.dev/v1/range?base=USD&symbols=TRY&start_date=2026-10-11&end_date=2026-11-07"USD/TRY over the last year
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