USD to MXN Forecast 2026: Institutional Consensus
The unweighted median of five comparable public forecasts is MX$18.10 per US dollar for year-end 2026. Contributor points range from MX$17.50 to MX$18.38.
Sources reviewed: July 19, 2026
2026 consensus at a glance
How this compares with the reference rate at review
Banco de México's FIX exchange rate was MX$17.5242 pesos per US dollar on July 17, 2026. The MX$18.10 median forecast is 3.3% above that reference, which implies a weaker peso by year-end if the median is reached. Banco de México FIX exchange rate
Forecasts included in the calculation
Each row links to the original public report. Forecast dates remain visible because publication age materially affects how the numbers should be read.
| Institution | Published | Target | USD/MXN forecast | Treatment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBVA Research México | June 18, 2026 | Year-end 2026 | MX$17.80 | Posted 18 June and updated 7 July 2026; the Mexico team expects USD/MXN around 17.8 at year-end. |
| Scotiabank Economics México | June 19, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | MX$18.38 | Published 19 June using spot data from 18 June; the forecast table gives a 4Q 2026 point of 18.38. |
| Grupo Financiero Banorte | April 22, 2026 | Year-end 2026 | MX$18.10 | The 1Q26 corporate presentation reports 18.10 as Banorte's end-period 2026 forecast. |
| MUFG Research | July 1, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | MX$17.50 | End-quarter point forecast from MUFG's July monthly foreign-exchange outlook. |
| Wells Fargo Economics | January 14, 2026 | 4Q 2026 | MX$18.25 | The oldest included forecast, published 14 January; its quarterly table gives 18.25 for 4Q 2026. |
Methodology
- A forecast qualifies when the institution publishes a numeric USD/MXN point or range for year-end or the fourth quarter of 2026 and the original report is publicly accessible.
- The consensus is an unweighted median. Every institution contributes once, regardless of size or forecast date.
- When an institution publishes a range, its midpoint enters the median calculation while the original range remains visible in the table.
- Annual-average assumptions, short-term technical levels, government budget assumptions, and figures reported only through an unverifiable secondary quotation are excluded.
- The page is updated when a qualifying institution revises its forecast. Older forecasts are retained only while they remain the institution's latest qualifying public projection.
What the spread says
The 0.88-peso gap reflects different assumptions about US and Mexican monetary policy, USMCA negotiations, inflation, fiscal conditions, and risk appetite.
Wells Fargo's January forecast is materially older than the other four. The median is a dated summary of published views, not a real-time probability estimate.